Summary:
A slowdown in new car launches is expected in 2025, with projections showing nearly a 25% drop over the next four years—the slowest rate in years. John Murphy of Bank of America Securities, speaking at the Automotive Press Association, highlights that only 159 models are set to show during this period, down from over 200 typically. A major factor behind this decline is the uncertainty surrounding electric vehicles (EVs).
Murphy describes the EV shift as an “unprecedented head-fake” that disrupted automakers’ product plans. There were delays, cancellations or uncertainty for many EVs initially scheduled for release. This has impacted the pace of model rollouts, with only 29 new models expected in 2025—the lowest in decades. Murphy forecasts that EV sales will likely stagnate around 8% of total U.S. vehicle sales, which they reached in 2024, and may not grow much further in the next five years.
The annual “Car Wars” report notes that the expected number of new EVs over the next four years has halved to 71, a steep drop from earlier forecasts. This may lead to financial losses for automakers, who have already begun writing down some investments. Additionally, Murphy believes the crossover boom is ending. With crossovers underrepresented in upcoming launches for the first time in two decades. However, full-sized trucks and large SUVs—vehicles that generate strong profits—may still perform well.
Despite the overall dip in product introductions, Murphy remains optimistic. He suggests that while the slowdown appears worrisome, strong performance from core, high-profit models could lead to a profitable period for automakers. This resilience may support strong earnings and positive movement in stock performance over the coming years.
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